Islamabad: Pakistan is heading into a dry and unusually warm winter that could prolong dengue transmission, worsen smog and put pressure on crops and water supplies, the Pakistan Meteorological Department said in its seasonal outlook on Thursday.
The meteorological department expects below normal rainfall in December 2025 and higher than normal temperatures across most regions, creating what officials describe as a ‘challenging climate and health season’ ahead.
PMD’s forecast shows that early winter will be marked by a widespread rainfall deficit, especially in northern Punjab, the northern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan, while southern Sindh may receive near normal showers later in the season.
The country is likely to begin December 2025 with a dry spell before rainfall returns to normal levels in late January and February.
Meteorologists say the lack of early winter rains will lower soil moisture in rain fed areas and may hinder the germination and early growth of Rabi crops.
Farmers in these regions will need more irrigation support, increasing production costs at a time when reservoir replenishment is expected to remain slow through December.
The outlook also warns that warm and dry conditions can stimulate pest and disease activity in winter crops, particularly in the plains of Punjab, Sindh and parts of KP. Higher temperatures, especially in northern areas and parts of Balochistan and Sindh, may create additional stress on crops already facing moisture shortages.
Health risks are expected to intensify as well as PMD warns that the warmer start to winter may extend conditions favourable for dengue, delaying the natural decline in mosquito activity that usually comes with falling temperatures.
Although colder conditions in January and February are likely to curb breeding, the extended window of transmission raises concerns for urban centres that have struggled with recurring outbreaks.
The dry spell is also likely to strengthen fog and smog formation across the plains, particularly in Punjab, where stagnant air can trap pollutants and lead to severe respiratory problems.
Health experts have repeatedly warned that winter smog aggravates asthma, cough, eye irritation and other respiratory symptoms, especially among children and older adults. PMD notes that late season rainfall may help improve visibility and disperse pollutants.
The forecast further indicates that low rainfall in December could temporarily slow the rise in reservoir levels, affecting irrigation and hydropower generation, although normal rainfall expected later in the season could help restore water supplies by February.
Officials say the outlook underscores the growing climate stress Pakistan faces each winter, with shifting weather patterns increasingly shaping crop performance, public health risks, and urban air quality. PMD has advised authorities to prepare for extended dengue precautions, closer crop monitoring, and strengthened air quality management as the season unfolds.
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