Islamabad: Pakistan’s nights are becoming hotter faster than its days, reducing relief from heat in central and southern Punjab, upper Sindh and Balochistan, as the country’s average temperature has risen by about 0.95°C since 1981, a new scientific assessment has found.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department report said minimum, or night-time, temperatures rose by 0.26°C per decade between 1981 and 2025, compared with a 0.20°C-per-decade increase in maximum daytime temperatures.
The study estimated that, over the 45-year period, Pakistan’s minimum temperatures increased by around 1.17°C, maximum temperatures by about 0.90°C and mean temperature by approximately 0.95°C.
The report, How the Climate of Pakistan has Changed: Evidence from 45-year Data Record, was prepared by Chief Meteorologist Dr Faisal Saeed Syed along with Bilal Ahmed, Syed Muhammad Zaheer Ud Din, Sajid Ali and Adeel Sadiq.
It analysed meteorological observations on temperature, rainfall, fog and extreme weather across Pakistan from 1981 to 2025.
“Pakistan is warming, its nights are warming faster than its days, and its rainfall has become less dependable rather than simply less abundant,” the report said.
The faster rise in night-time temperatures means people in already hot parts of the country are receiving less relief after sunset, while the persistence of heat can increase stress on health, electricity supplies, water resources and agriculture.
A comparison of the periods 1981-2000 and 2001-2020 found that night-time temperatures had risen by more than 2°C in parts of central and southern Punjab, Sindh and eastern Balochistan.
The report also found a sharp rise in warm nights, defined as nights when the temperature remains above 30°C. Such nights increased by more than six per decade in central and southern Punjab and upper Sindh.
Heat extremes have worsened as well. Parts of Punjab, central and upper Sindh and western Balochistan experienced more than 100 days a year with temperatures exceeding 40°C.
The number of hot days increased by up to five days per decade in western Balochistan, upper and eastern Sindh and southeastern Punjab, the report said.
The most pronounced warming occurred in late winter and spring. Between February and April, maximum temperatures rose by up to 1°C per decade in parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh.
Spring maximum temperatures were found to be 1.5°C to 2.5°C higher in 2001-2020 than during 1981-2000 in parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, KP, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Balochistan and Sindh.
The authors said earlier and hotter spring conditions could accelerate snowmelt in northern catchments, with implications for water availability and flood risks downstream.
The report found that Pakistan’s rainfall pattern was becoming increasingly uneven. Although annual rainfall showed a modest decline of 7.4 millimetres per decade, or about 33mm over the 45-year study period, the trend was not statistically significant because of large year-to-year variation.
Rather than falling uniformly, rainfall has been redistributed across regions and seasons. Punjab, Sindh and parts of KP generally recorded increasing rainfall, especially in pre-monsoon and monsoon months, while northern KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK showed declining rainfall during several seasons.
Rainfall increased by more than 30mm per decade in parts of Punjab, KP and Sindh, while northern AJK, upper KP and parts of GB recorded declines of up to 50mm per decade, particularly in winter and spring.
The report cited the 67 percent national rainfall deficit during winter 2024-25 and the 2022 monsoon, when southern Pakistan received up to 450 percent above-average rainfall, as illustrations of mounting climate volatility.
It called for region-specific plans to address extreme heat, changing rainfall, floods and droughts, with stronger links between climate information, disaster preparedness, agriculture and water management.
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