Islamabad: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) have issued fresh alerts warning of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, riverine flooding, and landslides across Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Balochistan between August 5 and 10, following forecast of heavy monsoon rains in the region.
The PMD, in a formal alert issued on Sunday, August 4, warned that scattered rain and thunderstorms with isolated heavy downpours are expected in the glaciated and mountainous zones of Gilgit-Baltistan and KP during the ongoing week.
The wet spell is expected to increase the risk of sudden GLOFs, flash floods, and landslides in areas already vulnerable due to melting glaciers and unstable slopes.
According to the NDMA’s latest advisory, moderate to high-level flooding is expected in River Chenab at Marala, Khanki and Qadirabad, and in River Jhelum at Mangla between August 5 and 10. River Kabul at Nowshera and tributaries like Swat and Panjkora are also likely to witness high flows, raising fears of urban and rural flooding.
The alert also warns of swelling water levels in major reservoirs and barrages, with water inflow likely to reach moderate levels at Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, and Guddu. Officials said Tarbela Dam is already 90% full while Mangla has reached 60% of its storage capacity, further compounding the flood risk.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, rivers like Hunza, Shigar, and associated nullahs are also likely to witness spates due to rainfall and ongoing glacial melt. Meanwhile, flash floods and hill torrents are also feared in Musa Khel, Sherani, Zhob, and Sibi districts of Balochistan.
“These conditions could lead to dangerous flooding situations. The relevant authorities must remain on high alert, while communities in flood-prone regions are advised to prepare and stay informed,” an NDMA official said, urging the public to avoid unnecessary travel in landslide-prone or inundated areas.
The alert, which was issued to federal and provincial disaster management authorities, also directs Rescue 1122, local administrations, and the Pakistan GLOF-II Project teams to activate emergency plans, ensure equipment readiness, and disseminate timely warnings to communities at risk.
“Glacial lake bursts combined with heavy rain could result in sudden disasters in the northern valleys. Swift evacuation and real-time coordination are essential,” a senior PMD official said, referring to the growing climate-linked vulnerability of Pakistan’s northern highlands.
People living near rivers, bridges, and flood-prone roads have been advised not to cross submerged infrastructure and to closely monitor official instructions. The NDMA has recommended using the “NDMA Disaster Alert” mobile app for real-time updates and guidance.
Experts warn that Pakistan’s mountainous regions—home to over 3,000 glacial lakes—are facing a growing climate emergency, as rising temperatures, erratic monsoon patterns, and unregulated development converge to increase the risk of cascading natural disasters.
In recent years, GLOF events and torrential rains have devastated entire valleys, washed away infrastructure, and displaced thousands, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, Swat, and upper Hazara. With more intense monsoon activity forecast, authorities fear a repeat of past devastation unless mitigation and early evacuation plans are activated.
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