Islamabad: As the deadly Nipah virus resurfaces in neighbouring India and continues to cause fatal outbreaks in Bangladesh, public health experts warn that Pakistan faces a real but largely ignored risk because the virus’s natural reservoir bats are already present within the country, while surveillance and preparedness remain weak.
Health experts say the Indian flying fox, the primary carrier of Nipah virus, is found in Pakistan’s northern regions and around the Margalla Hills, meaning the threat is not limited to cross-border movement. They warn that the virus’s long incubation period allows infected individuals to transmit the infection to others before developing recognisable symptoms, making early detection particularly difficult.
Renowned infectious disease expert Prof Dr Naseem Salahuddin said Nipah could emerge as an infection of concern in Pakistan due to ecological and behavioural factors already present in the country. She noted that fruit bats capable of carrying the virus live locally and that practices such as consumption of raw palm sap, common in parts of Sindh, are known to facilitate spillover in Bangladesh.
She warned that early Nipah symptoms closely resemble those of other viral encephalitis, making clinical diagnosis unreliable without laboratory confirmation. According to her, without local surveillance and targeted testing, Pakistan may fail to recognise cases altogether.
Former director general health and epidemiologist Dr Rana Muhammad Safdar said Nipah outbreaks have occurred sporadically in India and Bangladesh since 2001 and that while restricted travel reduces the risk of importation into Pakistan, it does not eliminate it. He stressed that airport or border screening alone is ineffective and urged authorities to focus on preparedness, risk mapping and enhanced vigilance in vulnerable zones.
Vice Chancellor Health Services Academy Prof Shahzad Ali Khan said the likelihood of widespread transmission in Pakistan remains low, but acknowledged that border screening offers little protection due to the virus’s incubation period, which can extend to several weeks. He said human-to-human transmission occurs mainly through close contact and that the virus’s high fatality rate limits prolonged spread, but conceded that Pakistan does have bat species capable of harbouring the virus.
Infectious disease expert Dr Faisal Mahmood of Aga Khan University Hospital said population movement between India and Pakistan is limited, and Pakistan has historically imported major infections such as COVID-19 and HIV from the Middle East rather than India. However, experts caution that zoonotic diseases already present in the local ecosystem do not require cross-border travel to emerge.
Despite these risks, Pakistan has no dedicated Nipah surveillance programme, no publicly declared laboratory preparedness and no clear isolation protocols. Public health experts warn that the first Nipah case in Pakistan may go undetected or misdiagnosed, delaying response and increasing the risk of transmission.
For specialists, the concern is clear: the bats are already here, but preparedness is not.