Islamabad: The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) has proposed establishing a National Vaccine Alliance (NVA), introducing government ‘buyback guarantees’ and long-term procurement contracts for locally manufactured vaccines, as Pakistan’s first National Vaccine Policy warns that the country’s annual vaccine import bill could rise toward $1.2 billion after donor subsidies phase out and demand expands.
Prepared by the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan and sent to Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif for approval, the policy estimates Pakistan’s local vaccine demand at 125 to 150 million doses annually and states that private investment in vaccine manufacturing is unlikely without assured government purchasing through buyback guarantees and multi-year contracts.
The draft policy was discussed at a high-level meeting chaired by Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on industries and production Haroon Akhtar Khan and co-chaired by Federal Minister for National Health Services Mustafa Kamal, attended by the federal health secretary and the DRAP chairman. Officials said the prime minister’s briefing on the policy has been finalised.
According to the policy, Pakistan imported vaccines worth about $340 million in FY 2024–25 at subsidised rates through mechanisms such as GAVI and UNICEF, valuing the same basket at around $510 million without concessional pricing. It cautions that as Pakistan transitions away from donor support and vaccine prices move closer to commercial levels, the country’s annual import requirement is projected to approach $1.2 billion.
The policy notes Pakistan is currently in GAVI’s preparatory transition phase, with the government contributing 49 percent of vaccine costs in FY 2025–26 while GAVI covers 51 percent. Pakistan is projected to enter the accelerated transition phase in 2030, after which subsidies are expected to decline, increasing pressure on public finances amid rising vaccine needs.
To mitigate this risk, the draft proposes creation of a National Vaccine Alliance under the Ministry of National Health Services to coordinate regulators, manufacturers, procurement bodies and development partners. A central role of the alliance would be to propose buyback guarantees and long-term procurement frameworks to create predictable demand for locally produced vaccines.
The policy proposes framework contracts of up to 10 years, with price and volume terms indexed to import-parity benchmarks and efficiency targets. It also allows for an initial local price 3 to 5 percent higher than international comparators to offset early scale disadvantages, stressing that buyback guarantees should de-risk capital investment rather than provide open-ended subsidies.
It estimates that while Pakistan’s total vaccine demand stands at 125–150 million doses annually, production of 300–400 million doses per unit is typically required to make large-scale manufacturing financially viable for routine immunisation vaccines, underscoring the need for pooled demand and long-term planning.
On capacity, the policy says Pakistan has only three vaccine manufacturing facilities: the National Institute of Health in Islamabad, Amson Vaccines and Pharma in Islamabad, and Dow University in Karachi. It notes that only one private facility manufactures a limited range of vaccines and is not WHO-prequalified, while NIH’s role remains largely confined to small-scale fill-and-finish operations and biologicals.
To build capacity gradually, the policy proposes a three-phase manufacturing pathway, starting with fill-and-finish operations, followed by technology transfer or joint ventures, and ultimately complete upstream vaccine production.
The draft also calls for strengthening regulation, including upgrading the National Control Laboratory for Biologicals and advancing DRAP toward WHO Maturity Level-3, alongside establishing a National Vaccine Fund to provide patient capital for vaccine manufacturing and regulatory readiness.
Officials said the policy is ready for approval and, once cleared, the government would move to notify the National Vaccine Alliance and begin work on the buyback framework and financing mechanisms aimed at reducing Pakistan’s growing dependence on imported vaccines.
Ends