Islamabad: Pakistan’s mean temperature has risen by about 0.95 degrees Celsius since 1981, while night-time temperatures warmed faster than daytime highs and rainfall patterns became increasingly uneven across regions, according to a Pakistan Meteorological Department scientific report led by Chief Meteorologist Dr Faisal Saeed Syed.
The report, How the Climate of Pakistan has Changed: Evidence from 45-year Data Record, was prepared by Dr Faisal Saeed Syed, Bilal Ahmed, Syed Muhammad Zaheer Ud Din, Sajid Ali and Adeel Sadiq. It analyses meteorological observations of temperature, rainfall, fog and extreme weather across Pakistan from 1981 to 2025.
“Pakistan is warming, its nights are warming faster than its days, and its rainfall has become less dependable rather than simply less abundant,” the report said.
The assessment found that Pakistan’s maximum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade, minimum temperature by 0.26°C per decade and mean temperature by 0.21°C per decade during the 45-year period.
These trends indicate that since 1981, maximum temperatures have risen by about 0.90°C, minimum temperatures by around 1.17°C and the country’s average temperature by approximately 0.95°C.
The report said the faster rise in minimum temperatures meant less night-time relief from heat, particularly in central and southern Punjab, upper Sindh and Balochistan.
Annual rainfall showed a modest declining trend of 7.4 millimetres per decade, equivalent to around 33mm over the study period. However, the authors cautioned that the decline was not statistically significant because rainfall varied sharply from year to year.
The assessment said rainfall was not falling uniformly across Pakistan but was being redistributed between regions and seasons. Punjab, Sindh and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa generally recorded increasing rainfall, particularly during pre-monsoon and monsoon months, while northern KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir showed reductions during several seasons.
Rainfall increased by more than 30mm per decade in parts of Punjab, KP and Sindh. In northern AJK, upper KP and parts of GB, it declined by up to 50mm per decade, especially during winter, spring and on an annual basis.
A comparison between 1981-2000 and 2001-2020 showed rainfall increases exceeding 100mm in parts of Punjab, southern KP and Sindh. Some northern areas, however, recorded reductions reaching 200mm during certain seasons.
The strongest warming was concentrated in late winter and spring. Maximum temperatures increased by up to 1°C per decade between February and April in parts of northern KP, GB, Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh.
The report found that spring maximum temperatures were 1.5°C to 2.5°C higher in 2001-2020 than in 1981-2000 across parts of GB, KP, AJK, Balochistan and Sindh. It said such warming could create earlier and hotter conditions conducive to snowmelt in northern catchments.
Night-time warming exceeded 2°C in parts of central and southern Punjab, Sindh and eastern Balochistan when the two 20-year periods were compared.
Extreme heat indicators also worsened. Some areas of Punjab, central and upper Sindh and western Balochistan experienced more than 100 days annually with temperatures above 40°C.
Hot days increased by up to five days per decade in western Balochistan, upper and eastern Sindh and southeastern Punjab. Warm nights, where temperatures remain above 30°C, rose by more than six nights per decade in central and southern Punjab and upper Sindh.
Heavy rainfall events of at least 150mm in a day occurred most frequently in AJK, Sindh and northeastern Punjab, while the highest five-day rainfall totals, exceeding 200mm, were recorded in northern Punjab, KP and AJK.
The authors cited the 67% national rainfall deficit in winter 2024-25 and the 2022 monsoon, when southern Pakistan received up to 450% above-average rainfall, as examples of growing climate volatility.
The report called for region-specific planning for extreme heat, shifting rainfall, floods, droughts, agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness.