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Climate change driving dengue’s late persistence in Karachi and Sindh: Experts

Karachi: Dengue transmission is continuing across Sindh despite falling temperatures, with 260 new cases confirmed in the last 24 hours and 77 fresh hospital admissions, reflecting delayed winter conditions driven by climate change.

Infectious disease specialists say the persistence of dengue so late in November reflects delayed winter conditions driven by climate change, inadequate vector control, and the presence of year-round breeding pockets that keep the Aedes aegypti mosquito active long after the usual season ends.

According to the latest daily situation report issued by the Directorate General Health Services Sindh, 43 new dengue patients were admitted to public hospitals while private facilities admitted another 34.

This brings the total number of hospitalised patients across the province to 71. Karachi reported 25 new admissions in government hospitals, followed by Hyderabad with nine. No dengue-related deaths were recorded.

Laboratory data shows continued circulation of the virus as a total of 3,328 people were tested across public and private labs, out of which 260 were positive. Karachi reported the highest number of lab-confirmed cases (147), while Hyderabad followed with 113.

Health experts say this pattern fits a broader trend: dengue cases are now being reported throughout the year rather than disappearing with the onset of winter.

Dr Faisal Mahmood, infectious diseases expert at the Aga Khan University, said dengue transmission never fully stops in Pakistan but new infections typically fall sharply by late October. “We are still seeing cases, but the trend is now decreasing. This persistence into late November reflects how our dengue season has stretched, though numbers have dropped compared to peak months,” he said.

Dr Saqib Ansari, a senior medical specialist, said the delayed winter is a major factor. “The Aedes aegypti mosquito usually dies when temperatures drop below twenty degrees. But when winter arrives late or remains mild, the mosquito survives longer, and dengue transmission continues,” he explained.

Another infectious disease expert, Dr Azizullah Dhillo, said the pattern cannot be explained by climate alone. “Climate change is extending mosquito activity, but poor or inconsistent control efforts are also a major concern. Persistent breeding sites in urban areas keep the mosquito population alive even when temperatures begin to fall,” he said. He added that clogged drains, stagnant water in construction zones, and poor waste disposal allow mosquitoes to breed even during cooler months.

Public health officials say this prolonged post-monsoon transmission is becoming a new norm. Warmer nights, higher humidity and irregular rainfall are helping Aedes mosquitoes survive longer, particularly in overcrowded neighbourhoods where small water collections go unnoticed.

Experts warn that without aggressive vector control and climate-informed planning, dengue could continue behaving like a near year-round infection in many parts of Sindh.

Health authorities said 42 patients recovered and were discharged from public hospitals in the last 24 hours, while private facilities discharged another 45. Officials stressed that while no deaths were reported, the virus remains a threat and early medical attention is essential to prevent severe complications.

The Directorate General Health Services has urged citizens to remove standing water from rooftops, courtyards and backyards, use repellents and ensure protective measures at dusk. District administrations have been advised to intensify cleanup operations and target high-risk pockets where mosquito breeding continues.

Experts say the late persistence of dengue this year is a warning signal. Rising minimum temperatures, weak urban sanitation and climate-driven shifts in weather patterns are reshaping disease risks in Sindh. They say a stronger, sustained vector control strategy is now critical to prevent dengue from becoming a permanent year-round public health burden.

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