Islamabad: At least 618 new HIV cases were registered in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) between January 2025 and March 2026, with official data showing a steady monthly increase in infections and a clear predominance of adult males, raising concerns about the role of drug use, unsafe sexual practices and the growing phenomenon of chemsex in the federal capital.
Month-wise data shows that 40 new HIV cases were reported in January 2025, followed by 43 in February, 41 in March, 39 in April, 36 in May, 31 in June, 63 in July, 45 in August, 52 in September, 36 in October, 41 in November and 31 in December.
In the first three months of 2026, another 41 cases were recorded in January, 39 in February and 40 in March, taking the total for the 15-month period to 618.
The data indicates that July 2025 recorded the highest number of cases with 63 registrations, followed by September with 52 and August with 45. The lowest monthly count was 31 cases, recorded in both June and December 2025.
The figures suggest that HIV transmission in the capital is no longer confined to isolated clusters but reflects a sustained urban trend, with dozens of new cases reported each month.
A breakdown of the 618 cases shows that adult males accounted for 397 cases, or more than 64 percent of the total. Adult females made up 106 cases, while 93 cases were recorded among transgender persons.
Children accounted for a smaller but concerning share, with 14 male children and eight female children testing positive during the period.
In 2025 alone, ICT reported 498 new HIV cases, while another 120 were registered in the first quarter of 2026.
“More than half of the people being diagnosed are young men, and the majority of them report drug use and unsafe sexual practices, particularly under the influence of methamphetamine,” a senior health official at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) said.
The demographic pattern has raised concern among HIV experts, who note that many newly diagnosed patients in their 20s and 30s report sexual encounters under the influence of methamphetamine, commonly known as Ice.
Health experts said meth-driven sexual activity is often prolonged, disinhibited and unprotected, increasing the risk of transmission. Islamabad and Rawalpindi have been identified as emerging centres where this pattern is becoming more visible.
They maintained that the practice is not confined to a single group and includes men who have sex with men, transgender sex workers, female sex workers and some heterosexual couples.
Experts say methamphetamine use is increasingly linked with sex work and casual sexual encounters, often leading to reduced condom use.
They warned that HIV prevalence among key populations, particularly homosexual men and transgender sex workers, may be significantly higher than earlier estimates, with rising drug use further accelerating transmission.
This trend is supported by emerging research. A 2025 study published in AIDS Care highlighted sexualized drug use among men who have sex with men, transgender persons and female sex workers in Pakistan, identifying chemsex as an emerging public health concern rather than an isolated phenomenon.
Pakistan’s broader HIV situation adds to the concern. According to UNAIDS, around 350,000 people are living with HIV in the country, while only about 74,000 are aware of their status, indicating a large gap in diagnosis and ongoing transmission.
Public health experts note that stimulant use is strongly associated with condomless sex, multiple partners and reduced inhibition, all of which increase the risk of HIV. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has also warned that stimulant use is linked to unsafe sexual behaviour and a higher risk of HIV and other infections.
The ICT data also suggests that transmission is not limited to adult men. More than 100 women and over 90 transgender persons were diagnosed during the period, indicating wider spread across sexual networks. The detection of 22 infected children raises concerns about mother-to-child transmission, infected spouses, unsafe medical practices or delayed diagnosis within families.
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