Islamabad: Illicit cigarettes make up a sizeable share of Pakistan’s tobacco market and their elimination could cut national smoking rates and raise government tax revenues by double digits, a new global analysis has found, warning that cheap untaxed brands continue to undercut efforts to reduce cigarette consumption in the country.
The study, published in the journal Tobacco Control, examined independent data from thirty six countries and modelled how smokers react when illegal cigarettes disappear.
It found that ending illicit sales reduces overall cigarette consumption by almost two percent and lowers smoking rates by one percent across the countries studied, with much sharper reductions in high illicit markets.
Pakistan has long struggled with a thriving illicit market that offers low cost cigarettes to millions of price sensitive smokers. Experts say the findings are directly relevant to Pakistan because the country consistently reports one of the largest gaps between taxed cigarette production and estimated consumption.
Researchers found that when illicit products are removed, most smokers are pushed toward higher priced legal brands, a shift that reduces demand and prompts many to quit. The analysis estimates that almost ten percent of illicit cigarette users across countries would stop smoking once illegal brands are no longer available.
The authors noted that the biggest reductions in smoking occur in countries where illicit cigarettes account for more than fifteen percent of the market. In such settings, consumption falls by more than four percent and smoking prevalence drops by more than two percent in relative terms.
For Pakistan, where low priced smuggled and illegally manufactured cigarettes remain widely accessible, the study reinforces long standing warnings from health experts. They argue that cheap untaxed brands have weakened the impact of successive tax increases by providing smokers with a low cost alternative whenever prices rise.
The analysis also highlights significant fiscal gains for governments. Eliminating illicit cigarettes increases tax revenues by an average of eleven percent across the sample countries, with high illicit markets seeing gains of up to twenty five percent. Pakistani officials estimate billions of rupees in losses each year due to non duty paid cigarettes and say that curbing illicit trade would immediately strengthen government revenues.
The study points out that the illicit market is not uniform across countries. In some places illicit packs are premium foreign brands, while in others like Pakistan they are dominated by very low priced products that are highly attractive to low income groups. This difference affects how smokers respond once illicit products are removed.
Researchers stressed that eliminating illicit cigarettes would reinforce other tobacco control measures such as higher taxes and stronger packaging laws. They also said that track and trace systems, border enforcement and shutting down illegal manufacturing units are essential to realising the full public health benefit.
Pakistan has already signed the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, but implementation remains limited. Officials say the country still struggles with weak enforcement across borders, unregistered factories and inconsistent monitoring of the supply chain.
Health specialists believe the new analysis strengthens the case for urgent action, arguing that Pakistan could reduce smoking, protect vulnerable populations and recover substantial tax losses if illicit cigarettes are effectively removed from the market.
They say that eliminating illegal cigarettes would give Pakistan a rare double opportunity to cut its tobacco burden while improving fiscal stability, a combination they describe as long overdue.
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