Islamabad: The cool valleys of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, once thought immune to mosquito-borne epidemics, have fallen to dengue for the first time in history. Health officials in Bagh district have confirmed 48 laboratory-positive cases, a shocking development that experts say signals how climate change is allowing tropical diseases to invade Pakistan’s mountains.
Perched 5,600 feet above sea level, Bagh was long considered too cold for the Aedes mosquito to thrive. But warming temperatures, erratic monsoon rains, and stagnant pools left by floods have transformed the pine-lined district into breeding grounds, setting off alarm bells in Islamabad.
“This is unprecedented,” said a senior official at the National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad. “Climate change has pushed mosquitoes into territories that were once safe. If Bagh can have dengue, no part of Pakistan is beyond reach.”
The official confirmed that an NIH team, including an entomologist, has been deployed to AJK to support local health staff. “Floods and stagnant water are creating ideal habitats. After this monsoon, Pakistan is staring at a flood of water-borne and vector-borne diseases,” he warned.
From Murree to Kashmir: Dengue Climbs Higher
The outbreak in Bagh coincides with an alarming surge in Murree, where confirmed dengue cases have risen to 62—surpassing Rawalpindi’s 59 patients for the first time since 2011. Health workers in Murree are spraying insecticides, distributing nets and repellents, and enforcing Section 144 against open water storage, but the virus continues to spread in the unusually wet and warm conditions.
Together, Murree and Bagh show how mosquitoes are now scaling Pakistan’s highlands. Once confined to Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi, dengue is steadily conquering cooler regions once considered inhospitable. Experts fear the next frontier could be Gilgit-Baltistan, where glaciers are melting and rainfall patterns are shifting.
The Triple Threat Nobody is Watching
Even more troubling is that dengue is not alone. The same Aedes mosquito transmits chikungunya and Zika, both present in Pakistan but rarely screened in labs. “Our diagnostics ignore chikungunya and Zika, so infections remain hidden,” an NIH virologist admitted. “With the mosquito’s expansion, Pakistan risks a triple epidemic.”
Chikungunya leaves victims in crippling joint pain for weeks, while Zika can cause birth defects. Combined with the hospitalizations, bleeding, and complications of dengue, experts say the impact could overwhelm Pakistan’s fragile healthcare system.
Climate Change: A Force Multiplier
Scientists describe dengue’s northern march as a textbook case of climate change reshaping disease. Heavier monsoons create breeding sites, while warmer nights allow mosquitoes to survive at higher altitudes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long warned that South Asia would face such surges in vector-borne illnesses as temperatures rise.
“Climate change is not just an environmental issue—it is a health emergency,” said Prof. Shahzad Ali Khan, a senior public health expert. “Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan were once too cold for dengue. Today, they are vulnerable because summers are hotter, rains are heavier, and winters are shorter.”
Already, WHO reports a 30 percent spike in suspected dengue cases in Pakistan in the past six weeks, with outbreaks stretching from Charsadda in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to flood-hit districts of Sindh and now the high valleys of Kashmir.
PM Fears a China-Style Crisis
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has voiced concern that Pakistan could face a crisis similar to China, where more than 8,000 chikungunya cases have been recorded this summer in Guangdong province. He has directed health authorities to intensify surveillance, fumigation, and awareness drives, while coordinating with provinces for rapid response.
“The Prime Minister knows our hospitals cannot handle simultaneous dengue and chikungunya epidemics,” an aide said. “The situation is worsened by climate change and by damaged health facilities in flood-hit areas.”
No Place Left Untouched
For health officials, the outbreak in Bagh is more than a local scare—it is proof that no part of Pakistan is beyond the reach of climate-driven disease.
“Bagh was never on our dengue maps. Now it is,” said an NIH epidemiologist. “If we don’t act aggressively, tomorrow it will be Gilgit, Skardu, and Hunza. Dengue is climbing with the climate.”
As stagnant water accumulates across flood-hit plains and mountain valleys alike, Pakistan faces an unprecedented test: stopping mosquitoes that are no longer bound by geography. From Karachi’s crowded neighborhoods to Kashmir’s cool hills, the country is now firmly in the grip of climate-linked epidemics.
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